WTI crude oil for August delivery settled at $76.54/bbl, essentially flat for the session. Brent crude rose 0.93% to $80.59/bbl, widening the transatlantic spread. The market remains range-bound between $75 and $79, with OPEC+ supply policy and US inventory data providing opposing forces.
OPEC+ compliance data for May showed Kazakhstan and Iraq overproduced by 180 Kb/d relative to their quotas. Kazakhstan alone exceeded its target by 115 Kb/d as the Tengiz expansion continues adding barrels. Saudi Arabia publicly urged better compliance at the June meeting but took no enforcement action.
The overproduction undermines the group's quota system but has not triggered a price collapse. The market appears to be pricing a pragmatic approach: Saudi Arabia prefers stable output to a price war, and actual compliance is likely to improve modestly through Q3.
US crude production held steady at 13.2 Mb/d, according to EIA weekly data. The Permian Basin rig count declined by 3 this week to 301, the lowest since 2023. Higher drilling costs and regulatory uncertainty are slowing activity growth despite relatively stable prices.
The $75-79 range has held since early June. Buyers should set coverage targets at the lower end of this range — $75 WTI — where speculative shorts are likely to cover. Avoid chasing above $78 until OPEC+ gives a clearer compliance signal.