US steel mills increased production last week as the combination of strong demand and trade policy uncertainty prompted operators to maximize output. EAF mill utilization reached 80.3%, the highest level since October 2025, while integrated mill utilization remained steady at 82.1%. Total production of 1.82 million tonnes was up 1.5% week-over-week.
Nucor announced that its sheet mills are operating at near-full capacity, with production in its Missouri and Arkansas facilities running at 95% utilization. The company noted that order lead times have extended by nearly a full week since the tariff reports emerged. Cleveland-Cliffs reported similar conditions at its Indiana Harbor and Burns Harbor facilities.
The production ramp-up is partly a response to declining import arrivals. May import licenses for flat-rolled steel totaled 420,000 tonnes, down 15% from April and the lowest monthly total since February. If the Section 232 tariff is raised to 40%, imports could fall to 300,000-350,000 tonnes per month, requiring domestic mills to fill the gap.
Scrap prices are also reacting. Busheling scrap in the Chicago market rose $20/gross ton this week to $410/gt, the highest since March. The scrap price increase adds a cost-push element to HRC pricing, providing additional support for finished steel prices. Steel-making raw material costs are estimated to account for 55-60% of finished HRC pricing.
The combination of rising mill utilization, falling imports, and cost-push from scrap creates a structurally bullish near-term outlook for HRC. Cover Q3 requirements aggressively this week. The import channel is narrowing precisely when demand is strengthening, which historically leads to sustained price appreciation.