LME tin is within 2% of its all-time nominal high of $54,200/mt, reached in late May. The proximity to ATH creates psychological resistance, with some traders taking profits at these levels. However, the structural supply deficit has created strong dip-buying interest each time prices pull back.
The 14-day RSI at 68.4 is approaching the overbought threshold of 70. Weekly stochastics are showing a bearish crossover from overbought territory, typically a medium-term sell signal. However, in strong trending markets (which tin is in), RSI can remain overbought for extended periods.
Support levels are well-defined: $50,800 (20-day EMA), $48,500 (50-day EMA), and $45,000 (previous resistance-turned-support). The uptrend channel drawn from the October 2024 low of $31,000 remains intact, with the lower channel boundary currently at $46,000.
LME tin’s open interest remains elevated at 18,000 contracts, suggesting institutional interest and trend commitment. The cash-to-3M backwardation has widened to $350/t, reflecting the low exchange inventory and physical tightness.
Do not chase the rally. Wait for a pullback to $48,000-50,000 for spot purchases. Layer forward hedges at current levels using quarterly strips — the backwardation means rolling hedges forward costs money. The trend is your friend but the risk/reward for new longs at ATH is poor.