LME three-month tin has rallied sharply following the SHFE surge. The $53,500 level has been tested as resistance; a close above it would open the path to $55,000. The breakout from the $48,000-52,000 range that held for six weeks signals a shift to a bullish phase.
The RSI at 68 is approaching overbought territory (70+). In the current low-stock environment, RSI can remain elevated for extended periods. The previous overbought reading in March preceded a rally from $52,000 to $57,000 before reversing. The MACD has crossed strongly above the signal line with wide histogram bars.
The $55,000 level is the major psychological resistance. Above that, the next target is the March high of $57,000, followed by the all-time high of $59,000 reached in November 2024. On the downside, the $51,200 level (50-day MA) serves as immediate support, with stronger bids at $48,000-50,000.
Open interest on LME tin has risen 12% since the start of June to 22,000 lots, the highest in four months. New money is flowing into the market on the long side. The CFTC data shows managed money has flipped from net short to net long over the past three weeks, aligning with the bullish technical breakout.
Tin is breaking out. Buyers who have not already covered should act now. The $55,000 level is the next target; if it breaks, there is limited resistance until $57,000-59,000. Layer 50% of remaining Q3 coverage immediately, with the balance on any dip back toward $51,200. Consider 3-month LME swaps to fix pricing.