Tin concentrate supply is facing simultaneous disruption from two of the world's largest producing regions. Indonesia, the world's second-largest tin producer, has intensified its crackdown on illegal mining operations, which previously accounted for an estimated 20% of national output.
The Indonesian government has also overhauled its mineral export licensing system, requiring all tin exports to go through a centralized electronic platform. The transition has caused processing delays, with concentrate exports down 35% year-on-year in Q2 2026.
In Myanmar, political instability continues to disrupt operations in the Wa State region, which supplies approximately 60% of China's tin ore imports. Rebel group activity and military operations have intermittently blocked access to mining areas and border crossings.
Together, Indonesia and Myanmar account for roughly 30% of global tin ore production. The simultaneous disruption at these two critical supply sources has created a supply vacuum that the thin global project pipeline cannot fill.
Global exploration budgets for tin remain minimal compared to base metals like copper and nickel. With only a handful of advanced-stage tin projects globally (including projects in Australia and Canada), the supply response to current prices is years away.
Diversify tin supply sources urgently. For tin-dependent manufacturing (soldering, electronics, solar), secure multi-year offtake agreements with producers outside Indonesia and Myanmar — Australia's Renison Bell and Peru's San Rafael are viable alternatives. Build 8-12 weeks of strategic tin inventory.