Eight thousand nine hundred seventy tons. That's the entirety of LME-registered tin inventory — enough to cover global demand for roughly two and a half days. It's not a typo. It's not a data error. Tin is operating with a stock buffer so thin that a single large buyer placing an order for 500 tons can move the market. For context, a typical solder manufacturer goes through 200–400 tons per month. A few firms making Q3 purchases simultaneously could drain available LME stocks in a week.
The Indonesian export situation is the proximate cause. Indonesia shipped 18,200 tons of refined tin in January–May 2026 versus 25,300 tons in the same period of 2025 — a 28% decline. The government's export license renewal process, which now requires compliance with new traceability and royalty-payment standards, has become a bottleneck. Only 12 of Indonesia's 35 registered tin smelters had received renewed export licenses as of May. The rest are producing but can't ship.
Myanmar's Wa State — source of roughly 15% of global tin-in-concentrate — has maintained mining restrictions since August 2023. The authorities have issued periodic statements about 'responsible mining frameworks' but no concrete timeline for resumption. Chinese smelters that relied on Wa State concentrate have pivoted to African and South American sources, but those supply chains are less reliable and more expensive. The net loss to the global concentrate market is estimated at 25,000–30,000 tons annually.
This isn't alarmism — it's arithmetic. 8,970 tons divided by global daily consumption of ~3,600 tons equals 2.5 days. If you use tin for solder, plating, chemicals, or alloys, you are operating in the most physically precarious base metal market. Immediate actions: (1) Verify your Q3 tin supply is contracted with named volumes, not 'best efforts.' (2) Confirm your suppliers' tin sources — if they're Indonesian, ask for their smelter's export license status. (3) Build physical inventory to at least 6 weeks of consumption. Yes, tin at $55,000/mt is expensive. A production line stoppage because you can't get tin is more expensive.