LME three-month tin held above $55,400/mt on June 19, while the SHFE contract surged 8.38% to 415,370 CNY/t. The rally has pushed tin near all-time highs. A convergence of supply constraints is driving it, and no major new mine is expected to relieve them before 2028.
Indonesia, the world's largest tin exporter, shipped just 45,800 tonnes of refined tin in 2024 — a 20-year low. The Prabowo administration's crackdown on illegal mining removed an estimated 80% of informal output from the Bangka-Belitung islands. Stricter export licensing created additional bottlenecks. January 2026 shipments virtually evaporated to just 400 tonnes, the lowest monthly figure since August 2015.
Myanmar's Man Maw mine — which supplied roughly 30% of global tin concentrate before its August 2023 suspension — remains stalled. The mine needs 6-9 months of dewatering even if permits were issued today. DRC's Bisie mine, another major source, faces ongoing disruption from conflict in North Kivu province.
Tin solders are essential for AI chip packaging, semiconductor manufacturing, and solar photovoltaic production. Solder accounts for roughly 50% of global tin demand. Each advanced semiconductor package needs tin-containing interconnects, and at current prices, tin still represents a fraction of total electronics bill-of-materials costs. Demand destruction is unlikely at these levels.
Tin buyers should assume elevated prices persist through year-end. No supply relief is visible before 2028. Cover medium-term requirements now. For Q4 2026, consider fixed-price contracts over index-based pricing given the backwardated structure.