SHFE tin prices surged 8.38% to 415,370 CNY/mt, the biggest daily gain of any commodity in the base metals complex. The move was driven by a triple catalyst: declining domestic output, tightening concentrate supply from Myanmar, and low exchange inventories that left shorts scrambling to cover.
China's refined tin output fell 4.7% year-on-year in May to 14,200 tonnes, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The decline was attributed to concentrate shortages from Myanmar, where political instability and flooding have disrupted mining operations in Wa State, the primary source of Chinese tin concentrate imports.
Myanmar tin concentrate exports to China fell 18% year-on-year in Q2 2026, according to customs data. The disruption is not expected to resolve quickly: ongoing conflict in Shan State and the upcoming monsoon season will limit any recovery before September. Chinese smelters are operating at 72% of capacity, down from 82% in Q1.
The SHFE-LME arbitrage has blown out to a significant premium of approximately $3,000/mt LME-equivalent basis. This is above the level that typically triggers import flows, but LME material is also constrained. The global tin market is projected to remain in deficit through 2026, with the ITA estimating a 9,000-tonne shortfall.
SHFE tin at 415,000 CNY/mt is pricing in a severe supply squeeze. Buyers who need prompt delivery in China have no choice but to pay the premium. For non-Chinese buyers, LME tin at $53,000-54,000 is still reasonable compared to SHFE. Consider swapping pricing basis to LME if contract terms permit.