Shanghai tin futures rose ¥4,650 to ¥425,960/mt on June 22, a 1.1% gain that tracked the LME's supply-driven rally. At current exchange rates, SHFE tin is at approximate import parity with LME tin — ¥425,960/mt at 7.24 CNY/USD equals about $58,800/mt, versus LME at $54,995/mt. The $3,800/mt premium reflects Chinese VAT and logistics costs, leaving no arbitrage incentive for Chinese buyers to import.
Chinese solder demand — which accounts for roughly 50% of global tin consumption — is holding at approximately 92% of pre-tariff levels, according to SMM data. The electronics manufacturing sector that drives solder demand has been resilient despite U.S.-China trade frictions, with Chinese PCB (printed circuit board) output up 5.2% year-on-year through May. Semiconductor packaging — the most tin-intensive electronics segment — continues to grow as China expands domestic chip production capacity.
SHFE tin stocks stand at roughly 5,400 tons, down from 7,200 tons in March. Combined LME + SHFE stocks of approximately 14,370 tons represent about 4 days of global consumption — the lowest combined inventory in at least five years. The tin market is tight everywhere, not just in one region. There are no pockets of surplus to relieve the pressure.
China is not hoarding tin — yet. The SHFE-LME spread at import parity means Chinese buyers are sourcing domestically, leaving LME stocks available for Western consumers. That's a fragile equilibrium. If Chinese demand ticks up to 95% of pre-tariff levels or if domestic production falters, Chinese buyers will start pulling LME metal — and 8,970 tons won't last long. For non-China buyers: the current import-parity spread is your window. Lock in Q3 tin volumes while Chinese demand is steady, not accelerating. If the SHFE-LME spread flips to a sustained premium above $5,000/mt, Chinese import buying will begin and LME stocks will drain fast.