Tin prices have surged to record levels in 2026, with LME three-month contracts trading at $49,663 per tonne as of early June, up 55% year-on-year and approaching the January 2026 nominal all-time high of $54,760 per tonne. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, tin futures hit a record 443,380 yuan per tonne, rallying over 37% since the start of the year. The rally is the strongest among all base metals in 2026, driven by a convergence of supply disruptions and robust demand from technology sectors.
The supply side is exceptionally tight. Global tin mine production is heavily concentrated in a few jurisdictions, each facing unique challenges. Indonesia, the world's largest exporter, raised its official export quota to 60,000 tonnes in 2026 from 53,000 tonnes in 2025, but is simultaneously cracking down on illegal mining operations. Myanmar, which historically supplied 60% of Chinese tin ore imports, continues to face production disruptions following the Wa State shutdown of mining operations. The Democratic Republic of Congo, another key supplier, faces operational disruptions that threaten supply from the Bisie mine.
Market balance has shifted into deficit for the first time since 2021. Refined tin production is expected to grow only 3% in 2026, insufficient to meet projected demand growth of 3.5%. The deficit is compounded by critically low exchange inventories, with LME and SHFE stocks at multi-year lows. Analysts at BMI/Fitch have raised their 2026 tin price forecast to $35,000 per tonne, while Reuters surveys suggest median forecasts of $35,000-47,000 per tonne, with an extreme scenario of $100,000 if major disruptions coincide with surging AI demand.
The tin market is at an inflection point. With deficits forecast and stockpiles at critical lows, procurement teams should secure H2 supply immediately. Consider building 3-6 months of buffer inventory. The risk of a further spike to $60,000+ is real if any major producer faces disruption.