LME tin three-month prices held near record levels this week, settling at $53,350/mt — within 2.8% of the all-time high of $54,875/mt recorded on May 28, 2026. The relentless rally reflects a market that is structurally undersupplied.
BMI/Fitch forecasts tin to average $35,000/mt in 2026, but current spot levels well above that forecast underscore the magnitude of near-term supply stress. The market is projected to post its first annual supply deficit since 2021.
Refined tin production is expected to grow only 3% in 2026, constrained by ore supply shortages, while demand is forecast to rise 3.5%, led by electronics soldering (48% of consumption) and solar panel manufacturing (growing at 8% annually).
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, tin fell 2.01% to 384,600 CNY/mt, reflecting profit-taking after SHFE tin hit a record 417,280 CNY/mt on June 12. The $32,000/mt premium of SHFE over LME has narrowed, indicating reduced Chinese import demand.
LME tin inventories at 8,850 tonnes remain critically low, providing just 2.3 weeks of global consumption cover. Any further draw on available stocks could trigger a liquidity crisis in the LME tin contract, as seen in the 2021 short squeeze.
Tin procurement is in emergency territory. Buyers should secure H2 2026 volumes immediately via fixed-price contracts. The 8,850t inventory level offers minimal buffer — a supply event at any major mine could trigger a spike above $60,000/mt. Consider solder paste substitution strategies for non-critical applications.