LME three-month tin is trading at approximately $55,225 per tonne on June 10, within 7% of the all-time high of $59,040 reached on May 29, 2026. Tin has been the strongest performing LME metal in 2026, surging approximately 45% year-to-date.
The rally is fundamentally driven by concentrate supply constraints. Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo together provide approximately 20% of global tin ore and roughly 60% of Chinese tin ore imports. Ongoing disruptions in both countries — Myanmar due to political instability and mining restrictions, DRC due to conflict in eastern provinces — have severely limited concentrate availability.
Chinese smelter production is directly constrained by the concentrate shortage. Despite strong smelter capacity, Chinese refined tin output is limited by available feedstock. BMI/Fitch expect concentrate tightness to remain a 'significant price driver' throughout 2026, restricting any large expansion in refined supply.
LME warehouse stocks have risen approximately 60% in 2026 to 8,660 tonnes — an increase from very low levels. While the stock build indicates some market rebalancing, the absolute level remains low by historical standards, leaving the market vulnerable to supply shocks. Of all LME metals, tin is the least liquid and most susceptible to sharp price moves.
The market expects a tin deficit in 2026, with no major new mine projects nearing production. The concentration of supply risk in Myanmar and DRC means any escalation in either country could push prices toward or above the May 29 record.
Tin's supply concentration risk is extreme. Two countries account for 60% of Chinese concentrate imports, and there are no quick substitutes or new mines on the horizon. If your supply chain uses tin or tin-based solders, secure H2 2026 volumes now. The all-time high could be broken on any negative supply news from Myanmar or DRC. Consider building inventory buffers to weather potential supply disruptions.