Tin ore exports from Myanmar's Wa State -- historically the source of roughly 10% of global tin supply -- continue to run at approximately 60% of pre-2023 levels, according to International Tin Association (ITA) estimates. The political and operational disruptions that began in mid-2023 show no sign of resolution. Myanmar tin mine output remains structurally depressed.
Indonesia, the world's second-largest tin exporter, has seen exports recover to roughly 70% of normal volumes, according to trade data. Licensing delays that plagued early 2026 have eased somewhat, but the approval process remains slow. Combined Myanmar-Indonesia exports are running roughly 25-30% below their 2022 baseline.
Despite this, LME tin has fallen 13.9% from its June high. The market is ignoring supply constraints and focusing entirely on the demand outlook. This is typical tin behavior -- the metal's small market size (~350,000 tonnes annual consumption) and dependence on electronics make it highly sensitive to growth sentiment. When macro fears spike, tin gets sold first and hardest.
The global tin market was in an estimated deficit of roughly 8,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026, according to ITA preliminary estimates. If the supply constraints persist -- and there's no reason to expect Myanmar or Indonesia to suddenly surge -- the deficit will continue in H2. At current low inventory levels, any demand recovery would trigger a rapid restocking cycle that could push prices back above $55,000.
The tin market is pricing in a recession that hasn’t happened yet, while ignoring a supply deficit that already exists. For procurement teams, this creates asymmetric risk: if demand holds up, tin could rally $5,000+ in a matter of weeks as buyers rush to cover. Securing coverage now at $49,550, while the market is panicking about demand, is a textbook hedge against supply-driven upside.