Myanmar’s Wa State tin mining region remains closed following the August 2023 suspension, with no progress toward a restart. The region previously accounted for 70% of Myanmar’s output and approximately 10% of global mine production. The ongoing closure has permanently removed an estimated 30,000 tonnes per year of supply capacity.
LME tin inventory stands at just 4,200 tonnes, equivalent to approximately 10 days of global consumption. This is dangerously low by historical standards and creates acute backwardation risk if any supply disruption occurs.
DRC tin output has grown 12% year-on-year to 18,000 tonnes annually, but this is insufficient to offset the Myanmar gap. Other producers in Indonesia, Peru, and Australia are operating near capacity with limited room for expansion.
Recycling provides about 30% of global tin supply, but the recycling rate is constrained by the long lifespan of tin-containing products (20-30 years for electronics). Increased recycling capacity requires time and capital.
The supply deficit is structural and will persist through at least 2027. This is not a cyclical price spike. Secure annual contracts on a fixed-price basis rather than floating LME quotes — the backwardation risk is severe. Maintain a minimum 60-day inventory buffer for tin-containing products.