The global tin market is navigating an unprecedented twin supply crisis, with two of the world's largest producers — Indonesia and Myanmar — simultaneously constrained by policy decisions and political dynamics. Together accounting for approximately 40% of global tin exports, the synchronized restrictions have created a supply gap that the market has been unable to fill through other sources.
In Myanmar, the situation remains the more intractable of the two. Wa State, a semi-autonomous region in northern Myanmar governed by the United Wa State Army, accounts for over 70% of the country's tin output. Mining was prohibited in August 2023, and despite periodic announcements of imminent resumption, operations remain largely shut. The timeline for any meaningful restart is highly uncertain and depends on political negotiations with the de facto Wa authorities.
Indonesia's situation is evolving more predictably but remains challenging. The government has imposed broader restrictions on mining quotas and experienced slow approvals for mining licenses across all metals. Refined tin shipments dropped 33% in 2024 to 46,000 tonnes. However, there are signs of improvement: official quotas are rising from 53,000 tonnes in 2025 to 60,000 tonnes in 2026. Continued crackdowns on illegal tin ore smuggling — which intensified in late 2025 — have also added a layer of supply uncertainty.
The impact on Chinese smelters — the largest consumers of Myanmar tin ore — has been severe. Chinese refined tin imports from Myanmar fell sharply, with October 2025 imports from Myanmar declining to negligible levels. This has forced Chinese smelters to seek alternative ore sources from Bolivia, Peru, and Indonesia, but at higher costs and with limited availability.
The combined effect has been a market that remains acutely vulnerable to any additional disruption. With thin project pipelines and limited new mine development globally, even a partial normalization of Indonesian and Myanmar supply would take months to filter through to exchange inventories and ease the tightness.
The structural supply risk in the tin market cannot be hedged away through financial instruments alone. Procurement teams should build strategic inventory buffers of 2-3 months' consumption if warehousing allows. For the medium term, develop relationships with non-traditional suppliers (Peru, Bolivia, DRC) to diversify away from Indonesia-Myanmar concentration. The DRC's Bisie mine (operated by Alphamin) offers one of the few large-scale non-Asian supply sources and may command a premium for supply security. Monitor Wa State developments weekly — a genuine restart announcement would be the strongest signal to delay spot purchases.