LME tin traded at $50,383 per tonne on June 25, up 1.41% on the day and 49.29% higher than a year ago, according to TradingEconomics. The metal is down 7.97% over the past month, having retreated from the record $58,750 per tonne touched in early June, but remains the best-performing base metal of 2026 by a wide margin. Coface notes that tin has risen 70% year-to-date, driven by what it describes as "speculative pressures linked to low stocks on the main metal exchanges" combined with tangible supply disruption in the two countries that dominate global production: Indonesia and Myanmar.
Indonesia's role as the dominant swing producer has been amplified by an increasingly aggressive regulatory environment. Refined tin exports collapsed to just 3,246 tonnes in May 2026, down over 40% year-on-year, as Jakarta tightened licensing and President Subianto ordered the closure of approximately 1,000 illegal mines. The government seized 500 tonnes of tin from unlicensed operations, and the broader crackdown has created bottlenecks throughout the export licensing system. March exports were 4,655 tonnes, down 19.5% year-on-year. While the Indonesia Tin Exporters Association targets 53,000 tonnes for 2025 and 60,000 tonnes for 2026 from official-sector production, actual exports are tracking well below those targets.
Myanmar's Wa State represents the other half of the supply disruption story. The Man Maw mine, which accounted for 7-8% of global tin supply before its suspension in August 2023, remains offline nearly three years later. The International Tin Association (ITA) confirmed that Wa authorities began accepting license applications in early 2025, and a March 2025 announcement signaled the lifting of the mining ban. But an earthquake in the region has complicated restart plans, and China's tin concentrate imports from Myanmar have collapsed from a pre-suspension average of 15,000 tonnes per month to just 933 tonnes in July 2025. DiscoveryAlert notes the disruption represents a 94% reduction in flows to Chinese smelters.
Demand dynamics are reinforcing the supply-driven price surge. Solder accounts for approximately 50% of global tin consumption, and the electronics industry continues to grow. SEMI reports that global silicon wafer shipments are expected to rise 5.2% in 2026, following 5.4% growth in 2025, reaching 13,500 million square inches. Data center construction, AI infrastructure, and photovoltaic installations are all tin-intensive applications. Coface expects a tin supply deficit as early as 2026, the first since 2021, driven by the collision of strong electronics demand with constrained mine supply growth in the DRC and Myanmar.
The ITA's long-term outlook is stark. The organization projects a 40,000-tonne annual deficit by 2030, with the gap beginning to widen noticeably after 2027. The development pipeline for new tin mines is described by the ITA as "thin" — visually represented as a narrow line on their supply forecast chart. With global refined tin production at roughly 380,000 tonnes per year, a 40,000-tonne structural gap represents more than 10% of annual supply, a deficit that would require prices substantially above current levels to incentivize new project development.
Exchange inventories have rebuilt from crisis levels but remain modest. Reuters reported that combined LME and SHFE tin stocks rose from 11,000 tonnes at end-October 2025 to over 19,000 tonnes by mid-January 2026 as producers delivered metal into the price rally. LME tin inventory closed 2025 at 8,039 tonnes, a two-year high after a rapid 2,300-tonne build in December. However, these levels are still low relative to demand, and the market remains acutely sensitive to any supply disruption. A single large warrant cancellation or Indonesian export delay can move prices by thousands of dollars per tonne.
For buyers, tin is the most dangerous metal in the procurement basket right now. Prices at $50,000/t are punishing, but the supply concentration risk is real: Indonesia and Myanmar together control roughly 40% of global mined supply, and both are in various states of regulatory or operational disruption. There is no quick supply response available, and the thin project pipeline means tightness is structural, not cyclical. Immediate action items: secure quarterly or semi-annual fixed-price contracts now rather than relying on spot purchases. If your solder or electronics supply chain depends on tin, build buffer inventory to cover 60-90 days of consumption. Diversify supplier geography away from pure Indonesia/Myanmar dependence — Peru (Minsur) and DRC (Alphamin's Bisie mine) offer alternative supply but come with their own logistics risks. For longer-term contracts, include price escalation clauses tied to LME tin rather than fixed pricing, as the structural deficit argues for sustained elevated prices through the end of the decade.
For buyers, tin is the most dangerous metal in the procurement basket right now. Prices at $50,000/t are punishing, but the supply concentration risk is real: Indonesia and Myanmar together control roughly 40% of global mined supply, and both are in various states of regulatory or operational disruption. There is no quick supply response available, and the thin project pipeline means tightness is structural, not cyclical. Immediate action items: secure quarterly or semi-annual fixed-price contracts now rather than relying on spot purchases. Build buffer inventory to cover 60-90 days of consumption. Diversify supplier geography away from pure Indonesia/Myanmar dependence. For longer-term contracts, include price escalation clauses tied to LME tin, as the structural deficit argues for sustained elevated prices through the end of the decade.