LME tin climbed $624 to $54,995/mt for the week ending June 22, a 1.15% gain that pushed the metal back toward the $55,000 level it briefly breached in mid-June. The rally was fueled by the same supply-side anxieties that have made tin the most volatile base metal in 2026: Indonesian export disruptions and Myanmar's Wa State mining uncertainty.
LME tin inventories sit at just 8,970 tons — less than one-tenth of the zinc stocks that are themselves considered critically low. On a days-of-consumption basis, available tin covers roughly 2.5 days of global demand, making it the tightest physically traded metal on the exchange. The cash-to-3-month spread has been in backwardation for most of 2026, with spikes above $500/mt backwardation during delivery squeezes in March and May.
Indonesia, the world's second-largest tin exporter after China, exported just 18,200 tons of refined tin in January–May 2026 — down 28% from the same period in 2025. The decline is attributed to delayed export license renewals and a crackdown on illegal mining in Bangka-Belitung. Meanwhile, Myanmar's Wa State — which supplies roughly 15% of global tin concentrate — has kept mining restrictions in place since August 2023, with no timeline for resumption. Between Indonesia and Myanmar, roughly 35,000–40,000 tons of annual tin supply are offline.
Tin is the tightest base metal market by a wide margin. With 2.5 days of global consumption in LME warehouses, you cannot rely on spot purchases. If you're a tin buyer, your Q3 coverage must be contracted now — not in July. Lock in volumes at current prices. The risk is not that tin drops $2,000 (possible but survivable) — it's that a supply shock sends it to $65,000+ and your supplier can't deliver at any price. Ask suppliers: where is your tin sourced? If it's Indonesia or Myanmar concentrate, you need a secondary supply path. Consider holding 6–8 weeks of physical inventory for Q3 rather than the usual 3–4 weeks. The carrying cost is cheaper than a production stoppage.