Tin has emerged as the best performing base metal of 2026, with prices surging from $32,000/t in mid-2025 to $54,000/t by June 2026 — a 68% increase driven by a convergence of supply crises. The suspension of Myanmar's Man Maw mine in Wa State, which typically supplies tens of thousands of tonnes annually, has removed a critical source of concentrate from global markets.
Myanmar is the world's third-largest tin producer, with approximately 700,000 tonnes of reserves representing about 15% of global supply. The Man Maw mine was halted for a resource audit, and despite expectations of a controlled restart under three-year licenses, no verifiable progress on export volumes has materialized through mid-2026. The chronic uncertainty over concentrate flows from Myanmar has become a structural feature of the market.
Indonesian export restrictions add another layer of supply tightness. The government's ongoing policy to capture more domestic processing value has constrained refined tin exports, further reducing availability in the LME-deliverable market. LME inventories have fallen to approximately 2,200 tonnes, down 53% from the start of 2025.
BMI/Fitch has revised its 2026 tin price forecast upward from $35,000/t to $45,000/t, and then further to $55,000/t as the supply deficit deepens. The International Tin Association projects a structural market deficit as demand from electronics, soldering, and semiconductor manufacturing continues to grow steadily.
On the demand side, tin is essential for electronics soldering (accounting for approximately 50% of global consumption), with no viable substitute in most applications. Semiconductor demand growth, driven by AI chips and data center infrastructure, provides an additional demand floor. Solar panel manufacturing also consumes significant tin volumes.
Tin buyers face the tightest supply conditions in decades. With no visibility on when Myanmar's Man Maw mine will resume exports, and Indonesian restrictions likely to persist, the supply deficit will continue to support elevated prices. Consider securing forward volumes at current levels, as further upside to $60,000+ is possible if no new supply emerges.