LME tin has been the strongest-performing base metal in 2026, surging approximately 70% year-over-year to trade near $50,000 per tonne in early June. The rally reflects a perfect storm of supply constraints: Indonesia's mining license delays and export restrictions, combined with Myanmar's prolonged Wa State mine ban, have simultaneously tightened the two largest sources of global tin supply.
Together, Indonesia and Myanmar account for roughly 40% of global tin exports. Indonesia's refined tin shipments fell 33% in 2024 to 46,000 tonnes, and mine production dropped 28% due to broader restrictions on mining quotas. In Myanmar, the Wa State — which accounts for more than 70% of the country's tin output — has maintained its mining ban since August 2023, with production falling approximately 40%.
LME tin inventories reflect the severity of the squeeze. Stocks in LME warehouses stood at just 2,220 tonnes at mid-2025, down 53.3% from 4,760 tonnes at the start of the year. While inventories have partially recovered since, they remain at levels that leave the market acutely sensitive to any additional disruption. The first supply deficit since 2021 is now widely expected by analysts including Coface and BMI.
Market hopes for a restart of Myanmar's Wa State mines have repeatedly fallen short. The International Tin Association announced in July 2025 that shipments from Wa State would resume, but by late 2025 no verifiable progress had materialized. Fitch Solutions' BMI has adopted a 'wait and see' approach, noting that news of a resumption has circulated for months without concrete action. This ongoing uncertainty is a structural bullish factor.
Demand from the electronics and semiconductor sectors remains robust. Global shipments of silicon wafers are expected to grow 5.2% in 2026 after 5.4% growth in 2025, directly boosting tin demand for solder. Data center construction and AI infrastructure buildout are additional structural demand drivers that analysts expect to persist regardless of macroeconomic conditions.
Tin at $50,000/t with critically low exchange inventories leaves buyers highly exposed to further upside. The key variable is Wa State in Myanmar — any genuine resumption of mining could trigger a sharp correction toward $35,000/t, but continued delays could push prices toward $55,000-60,000/t. Buyers should adopt a layered approach: cover essential volume at current levels for the next 3-6 months, maintain flexibility for opportunistic purchasing if Wa restarts, and explore substitution options where feasible (lead-free solder alternatives, reduced tin content in alloys).