LME three-month tin edged up 0.45% to $50,325/mt on June 26, holding above the psychologically important $50,000 level despite a challenging month. Tin has fallen 8.0% over 30 days as macroeconomic headwinds and demand uncertainty weighed on the market, but supply-side constraints are preventing a deeper decline.
The largest supply disruption remains Myanmar, where tin concentrate exports from the Wa State region have been severely restricted since August 2023. Wa State authorities continue to enforce mining controls, with production estimated at 40-50% of pre-2023 levels. Myanmar typically supplies 12-15% of global tin concentrates, and the prolonged disruption has created a structural deficit in the concentrates market.
Indonesia, the world’s largest tin exporter, shipped 23% less refined tin year-on-year through May 2026. Export licensing delays and tightened environmental enforcement under the RKAB system have constrained output from Indonesian smelters. Combined with Myanmar’s disruption, Southeast Asian tin supply is at its lowest since 2019.
LME tin stocks drew 2.15%, the sharpest decline among base metals in this reporting period. Available inventory has fallen below 1,800 tonnes, representing less than 3 days of global consumption. Cancelled warrants stand at 35% of total stock, indicating imminent further draws.
Demand has softened in line with the global electronics cycle. Semiconductor sales growth decelerated to 3.2% year-on-year in May from 8.5% in April, according to SIA data. Solder demand — tin’s primary end-use at 50% — is sensitive to electronics production, and the slowdown is weighing on sentiment. However, structural demand from solar panel assembly and EV electronics continues to grow at double-digit rates.
Tin supply disruption is structural, and sub-3-days of LME inventory makes the market vulnerable to price spikes on any demand recovery. Buyers with Q3 solder requirements should assess whether current prices represent an accumulation opportunity. The $50,000 level is supported by Myanmar and Indonesia supply constraints, but a global electronics recovery in H2 could push prices back toward $55,000. Consider securing volume commitments now rather than relying on spot purchases.