Global semiconductor sales growth slowed to roughly 6% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026, down from 15% in Q1, according to Semiconductor Industry Association data. The deceleration reflects maturing AI-related chip demand and softer consumer electronics spending. For tin, this is a concerning signal -- solder accounts for roughly half of all tin consumption.
Global PC shipments fell approximately 3% year-over-year in Q2, while smartphone shipments were roughly flat. The consumer electronics refresh cycle that drove strong demand in 2024-2025 appears to be running out of steam. Consumer electronics are a significant driver of tin-based solder demand for printed circuit board assembly.
The semiconductor slowdown is not uniform. AI and data center chip demand remains strong, but these are a relatively small share of total solder consumption compared to the vast market for consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and industrial equipment. The latter categories, which account for the majority of solder use, are seeing softening demand.
One offset is the continued shift to lead-free solder, which has higher tin content (typically 95-99% tin) compared to traditional tin-lead solder (60-63% tin). As more countries adopt lead-free regulations, the tin intensity of solder increases. However, this trend provides only a gradual demand boost -- not enough to offset a cyclical electronics slowdown.
The electronics slowdown is real but potentially temporary. AI infrastructure buildout continues and will require solder for servers, networking equipment, and power systems. The consumer electronics weakness is concerning for near-term tin demand but doesn’t change the structural supply deficit story. Use the current price weakness to cover near-term needs, but keep some floating exposure for H2 in case the electronics cycle stabilizes.