Global refined tin demand is estimated to have grown 3.5% year-on-year in 2026, driven by robust electronics manufacturing and rapid expansion in AI-related infrastructure. Tin's role as an essential component in solder — used in virtually all electronic devices — makes it strategically important for the technology sector.
AI data center buildout is creating a new demand vector for tin. Each large-scale data center consumes 50-100 tonnes of tin solder for server rack assembly, networking equipment, and power distribution systems. With global data center capacity expected to triple by 2028, the incremental demand is meaningful.
Solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing is another rapidly growing tin demand source. Each GW of solar panel capacity uses approximately 200 tonnes of tin for soldering connections between PV cells. Global solar installations are projected to exceed 500 GW in 2026, up from 450 GW in 2025.
On the supply side, the outlook remains bleak. No major new tin mines are expected to reach production before 2028-2029. Exploration projects in Australia, Canada, and Africa are in early stages and face permitting timelines of 5-7 years. Secondary tin recycling accounts for only 25% of global supply and is constrained by collection economics.
The ITRI (International Tin Research Institute) projects that the global tin market will remain in deficit through at least 2028, with the cumulative deficit potentially exceeding 80,000 tonnes over 2025-2028.
The demand-supply imbalance is structural and likely to persist for years. Buyers should implement aggressive forward contracting strategies, securing 9-12 months of coverage at current prices. The trend is decisively higher for tin.