The International Tin Association estimates a 9,000-tonne global refined tin deficit for 2026, widening from 7,200 tonnes in 2025. This marks the third consecutive year of deficit, and the trend shows no signs of reversing: electronics demand is growing at 4.8% annually while mine output expands at just 1.5%.
Semiconductor demand is the primary growth driver, with tin used in solders for chip packaging and PCB assembly. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics group projects 4.8% growth in global chip sales for 2026. AI and data center infrastructure buildouts are adding incremental demand for high-reliability solders with higher tin content.
On the supply side, no greenfield tin mine has reached production since the Uis mine in Namibia (2019), and the project pipeline is thin. The most advanced project, San Rafael's expansion in Peru, is on hold due to community opposition. The Andean tin belt has exploration potential but development timelines run to 2028-2030.
Secondary tin supply (recycling) provides about 25% of global output, but recycling rates are constrained by product lifetimes. Electronic waste contains embedded tin that takes 3-5 years to return to the market. The recycling rate for tin in electronics is only 40%, well below the rate for lead-acid batteries (99%).
The structural deficit makes tin a long-term strategic concern for procurement teams. Build inventory coverage to 60-90 days to buffer against price spikes. Consider direct offtake agreements with smelters for 2027 volumes. The deficit story suggests LME tin will test $60,000 before the deficit closes.