The depletion of Myanmar's pre-ban tin concentrate stockpiles marks a critical inflection point for the global tin market. These stockpiles, estimated at 30,000-40,000 tonnes of contained tin, had been slowly feeding Chinese smelters throughout 2025, providing a crucial supply buffer that moderated the price impact of the mining ban.
With these stockpiles now exhausted, Chinese tin smelters face a sharp reduction in feedstock availability. Several smaller smelters in Yunnan province have reduced operating rates, and some have temporarily suspended production pending concentrate procurement.
The resulting decline in Chinese refined tin output is estimated at 10,000-15,000 tonnes annually, exacerbating the global deficit. China's refined tin exports have fallen to near zero, and the country is expected to become a net tin importer in H2 2026 for the first time in years.
LME tin prices have responded to the tightening fundamentals, with the cash-to-three-month spread shifting to a modest backwardation. The critically low LME inventory level of 4,200 tonnes means that any additional supply disruption — logistics, labor action, or smelter outage — could trigger a sharp price spike.
The ITRI has warned that the tin market faces its most severe supply crisis since the Indonesian export ban of 2012-2013, which pushed prices above $60,000/mt.
The exhaustion of Myanmar stockpiles removes the last supply buffer. Tin buyers should treat this as a critical supply risk and secure maximum feasible forward coverage. Consider stockpiling physical inventory if warehouse space allows.