The global tin supply-demand balance deteriorated significantly in Q2 2026, with the projected annual deficit widening to 15,000 tonnes — nearly double the 8,000-tonne deficit in 2025. The primary driver is the Myanmar supply outage, which has removed an estimated 10,000-12,000 tonnes of concentrate production from the global balance since April.
Refined tin demand remains resilient at 380,000 tonnes, growing 3.1% year-on-year. The electronics sector, accounting for 48% of tin consumption, continues to drive growth as AI server buildout, 5G infrastructure, and IoT device proliferation increase solder demand. Global electronics production rose 5.2% year-on-year in Q2 2026.
On the supply side, 365,000 tonnes of refined tin is expected, down 1.5% year-on-year due to Myanmar, partial disruptions at Bolivia's Huanuni mine (flooding in May), and declining output from smaller Chinese operations. The supply gap is being partially bridged by government stockpile releases and scrap recovery, but these are temporary measures.
The global stock-to-use ratio has fallen to 4.5 weeks — the lowest since Q1 2022 — and is projected to decline further to 3.5 weeks by December. A stock-to-use ratio below 5 weeks is historically associated with price spikes and supply panic buying.
A 15,000-tonne deficit with a 4.5-week stock cover is a dangerous market for buyers. Every tin procurement should prioritize supply security over price. Secure minimum 6-month forward coverage. The deficit widens as Myanmar remains shut — revisit hedging if LME tin dips below $55,000. Consider bismuth or silver as substitute alloys in low-reliability solder applications.