LME tin prices remain elevated near all-time highs at $57,525/mt cash, with three-month at $57,775/mt. The persistent supply deficit from Myanmar's Wa State — historically the world's largest tin concentrate supplier — continues to be the dominant price driver.
Myanmar's tin concentrate output remains approximately 90% below pre-suspension levels, with Wa State authorities maintaining the mining ban imposed in August 2024. Stockpiles accumulated before the ban have been largely depleted, and there is no clear timeline for resumption.
Indonesia's tin export restrictions are compounding the supply shortage. Exports from Indonesia have fallen 15% year-on-year in 2026, as the government tightens controls on illegal mining and refines its export permit system.
LME tin inventories have fallen to approximately 4,200 tonnes, representing just over two weeks of global consumption at current demand rates. The critically low stock coverage provides a high floor for prices and leaves the market vulnerable to further upside spikes.
The global tin market is projected to record a deficit of 15,000-20,000 tonnes in 2026, the fourth consecutive year of deficit, as structural demand from electronics soldering, AI hardware, and solar panel manufacturing outpaces constrained supply.
Tin is experiencing the most acute supply crisis in decades. With Myanmar unlikely to resume exports in 2026 and LME stocks at critically low levels, buyers should secure maximum forward coverage now. The risk of a short-squeeze above $60,000/mt is significant.