Tin prices edged higher on Thursday as the Myanmar supply outage continued with no restart timeline. LME three-month tin settled at $57,110/mt, up 0.4% on the day, trading within the $56,500-57,800 range that has held since late May. The market is pricing in a sustained supply deficit from the Wa State suspension.
The Myanmar crisis shows no sign of near-term resolution. The Wa State's United Wa State Army (UWSA), which controls the Man Maw tin mining region, suspended all mining and processing operations on April 17 for an indefinite environmental and security review. No new permits have been issued since the suspension. Myanmar previously supplied approximately 30,000 tonnes of tin concentrate annually, representing 8-9% of global mine supply.
LME tin inventories continued to decline, falling 2.1% to 4,120 tonnes — equivalent to less than two weeks of global refined consumption. Cancel warrants accounted for 38% of total stocks, signaling imminent physical withdrawals. The declining stock picture is consistent with a market consuming more tin than it produces.
Alternative supply sources are insufficient to fill the gap. The Bisie mine in the DRC, the world's third-largest tin mine, is operating at capacity (~12,000 tonnes/year). Chinese tin production from Yunnan has increased marginally but domestic concentrate supply is also declining as smaller mines face depletion.
Tin buyers face the tightest supply market since the 2021-2022 shortage. With Wa State mines shut indefinitely, LME stocks below 5,000 tonnes, and no replacement supply ready, prices could test $60,000/mt. Secure all Q3-Q4 2026 requirements now. Consider multi-year contracts with price escalation clauses. Alternate solder formulations should be evaluated for non-critical applications.