The tin market is living through a supply shock that has no end date. Myanmar's Wa State, an autonomous region bordering China that produces roughly 70,000 tons of contained tin annually (20% of global mine supply), has been under a mining suspension since August 2025. The Wa State government imposed the ban citing environmental degradation and resource depletion, and negotiations with Chinese buyers and the Myanmar central government have produced no breakthrough.
The numbers are stark. Eleven months of lost Myanmar production translates to roughly 58,000 tons of contained tin that would have entered the global market. LME stocks at 8,970 tons have absorbed part of the deficit but are now critically low. At current global tin consumption of approximately 3,200 tons per day (380,000 tons annually), 8,970 tons represents less than three days of cover. The tin market is one supply disruption away from a physical squeeze.
Indonesia, the world's second-largest tin exporter, has partially offset the Myanmar shortfall. Indonesian refined tin exports rose 28% year-over-year in Q1 2026 to 22,400 tons, per Trade Ministry data. State-owned PT Timah, the largest producer, increased output by roughly 4,000 tons as higher prices incentivized production. But Indonesia's total production capacity is approximately 70,000-75,000 tons per year, and it's approaching that ceiling. It cannot fully replace Myanmar.
China, which processes roughly 50% of Myanmar's tin into refined metal, has been hit hardest. Chinese tin smelters in Yunnan province, adjacent to Wa State, have seen concentrate supplies fall by 60-70% since the ban. Chinese refined tin production fell 5.2% year-over-year in Q1, per SMM data, and SHFE tin inventories at 6,200 tons are below the five-year average. China imported 18% less tin concentrate in Q1 2026 than in Q1 2025, despite paying sharply higher TCs to secure alternative supply from Africa, South America, and Australia.
There is no resolution catalyst on the horizon. The Wa State leadership has given no timeline for lifting the ban. Alternative tin sources — Alphamin's Bisie mine in DRC (12,000 tpy), Minsur's San Rafael in Peru (20,000 tpy), and small-scale operations in Nigeria and Rwanda — are ramping but face their own logistical and regulatory constraints. The tin market will likely remain in deficit through at least mid-2027 unless Myanmar reopens.
LME tin stocks at 8,970 tons (2.8 days of cover) are a flashing red warning. Myanmar shows no sign of reopening, Indonesia is near its production ceiling, and alternative sources can't fill the gap quickly. If a major consumer (solder manufacturer, float glass producer) decides to build inventory, the LME stocks buffer disappears within days and the price spikes. For tin buyers, the question isn't whether $55,000/mt is cheap or expensive — it's whether you can get physical metal at all. Secure Q3 and Q4 tin volumes now. Consider fixed-price contracts: the risk is asymmetric to the upside.