Tellurium is the most supply-constrained material in the thin-film solar supply chain. Annual global production sits at roughly 500-600 tonnes, yet a single CdTe solar manufacturer — First Solar — requires approximately 90 tonnes annually at its current 16 GW capacity, growing to 140 tonnes by 2027 at 25 GW capacity. The arithmetic is stark: a single company's planned expansion absorbs roughly 25% of current global tellurium output.
Supply concentration mirrors copper. Tellurium is recovered from copper anode slimes alongside selenium. China produces roughly 35% of global tellurium, followed by Japan (25%), Russia (15%), and Canada (10%). The US imports nearly all its tellurium requirements despite having significant copper refining capacity, because domestic tellurium recovery rates are low. Supply growth is capped by copper throughput — no amount of tellurium price increase will meaningfully increase output without more copper refining.
CdTe solar is the growth story. First Solar's CdTe technology uses approximately 40-50 tonnes of tellurium per GW of module capacity. The company has announced capacity expansion from 16 GW (2025) to 25 GW (2027) and 50+ GW by 2030, with manufacturing facilities in the US, India, and France. Each GW step adds 40-50 tonnes of tellurium demand. At 50 GW, First Solar alone would consume roughly 40% of current global tellurium supply — a physically challenging concentration of demand in a by-product market.
Price implications. Tellurium has risen from approximately $60-80/kg in 2020 to the current $100-130/kg range. The supply-demand math suggests the market is structurally tight, with persistent deficit risk from 2027 onward. Prices could reach $150-200/kg by 2028 if CdTe deployment continues on its current trajectory, limited only by the cost pass-through tolerance of solar module economics.
For comprehensive data and intelligence on tellurium and related markets, refer to the Rzzro Intelligence — Solar Materials and Rzzro Data — Commodity price tracking.
Tellurium is the critical bottleneck in the CdTe solar supply chain. For buyers in PV manufacturing: (1) secure term contracts with Japanese and Russian suppliers for uncommitted tellurium; (2) monitor First Solar's capacity expansion timeline as the single most important demand indicator; (3) budget for $100-180/kg through 2027, with upside risk beyond. The tellurium market is too small for just-in-time procurement — inventory buffers of 6+ months are prudent.