• Spot price level (early June 2026) – ICE #11 raw sugar at ~14.1–14.4 USc/lb on 5–6 June 2026, lowest since April 2026; down ~4–5% m/m and ~14–15% y/y. → Market is in a low‑price phase versus 2023 peaks above 27 USc/lb and 2025 levels. • Global balance 2025/26 (driving current prices) – USDA (Dec 2025) forecast: world centrifugal sugar production 189.3 MMT vs consumption 178.1 MMT; exports 66 MMT; ending stocks 44.5 MMT. – Another USDA/FAS projection cited by Nasdaq: global 2025/26 production 189.318 MMT, consumption 177.921 MMT; ending stocks 41.188 MMT. – International Sugar Organization (I
• Spot price level (early June 2026) – ICE #11 raw sugar at ~14.1–14.4 USc/lb on 5–6 June 2026, lowest since April 2026; down ~4–5% m/m and ~14–15% y/y. → Market is in a low‑price phase versus 2023 peaks above 27 USc/lb and 2025 levels. • Global balance 2025/26 (driving current prices) – USDA (Dec 2025) forecast: world centrifugal sugar production 189.3 MMT vs consumption 178.1 MMT; exports 66 MMT; ending stocks 44.5 MMT.
– Another USDA/FAS projection cited by Nasdaq: global 2025/26 production 189.318 MMT, consumption 177.921 MMT; ending stocks 41.188 MMT. – International Sugar Organization (ISO) May 2026: record 2025/26 production 182 MMT (+3.5% y/y) and a surplus of 2.2 MMT, reversing a 3.46 MMT deficit in 2024/25. – Rabobank expects ~2.6 MMT global surplus in 2025/26, largely from a rebound in India.
Net: multiple agencies show production > consumption in 2025/26, stocks rebuilding and a clear surplus, explaining downward price pressure. • Key origins and structural drivers – Brazil: • USDA FAS projects 2025/26 production at a record ~44.7 MMT and strong exports. • UNICA reports very strong Center‑South output: late‑April 2026 sugar production +109% y/y, with 59.66% of cane to ethanol (still a high sugar mix in absolute tonnes).
• Safras & Mercado sees Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar output slipping ~3.9% to 41.8 MMT and exports down 11% (to 30 MMT), which would moderately tighten balances post‑2026 if other origins don’t fully offset.
Procurement teams should maintain flexible sourcing strategies for Sugar given the evolving market dynamics. Monitor supply-side developments, inventory trends, and demand signals from end-use sectors. Consider layered hedging against price volatility and diversify supplier exposure to manage risk.