• Spot price level (early June 2026) – ICE #11 raw sugar at ~14.1–14.4 USc/lb on 5–6 June 2026, lowest since April 2026; down ~4–5% m/m and ~14–15% y/y. → Market is in a low‑price phase versus 2023 peaks above 27 USc/lb and 2025 levels. • Global balance 2025/26 (driving current prices) – USDA (Dec 2025) forecast: world centrifugal sugar production 189.3 MMT vs consumption 178.1 MMT; exports 66 MMT; ending stocks 44.5 MMT. – Another USDA/FAS projection cited by Nasdaq: global 2025/26 production 189.318 MMT, consumption 177.921 MMT; ending stocks 41.188 MMT. – International Sugar Organization (I

• Spot price level (early June 2026) – ICE #11 raw sugar at ~14.1–14.4 USc/lb on 5–6 June 2026, lowest since April 2026; down ~4–5% m/m and ~14–15% y/y. → Market is in a low‑price phase versus 2023 peaks above 27 USc/lb and 2025 levels. • Global balance 2025/26 (driving current prices) – USDA (Dec 2025) forecast: world centrifugal sugar production 189.3 MMT vs consumption 178.1 MMT; exports 66 MMT; ending stocks 44.5 MMT.

– Another USDA/FAS projection cited by Nasdaq: global 2025/26 production 189.318 MMT, consumption 177.921 MMT; ending stocks 41.188 MMT. – International Sugar Organization (ISO) May 2026: record 2025/26 production 182 MMT (+3.5% y/y) and a surplus of 2.2 MMT, reversing a 3.46 MMT deficit in 2024/25. – Rabobank expects ~2.6 MMT global surplus in 2025/26, largely from a rebound in India.

Net: multiple agencies show production > consumption in 2025/26, stocks rebuilding and a clear surplus, explaining downward price pressure. • Key origins and structural drivers – Brazil: • USDA FAS projects 2025/26 production at a record ~44.7 MMT and strong exports. • UNICA reports very strong Center‑South output: late‑April 2026 sugar production +109% y/y, with 59.66% of cane to ethanol (still a high sugar mix in absolute tonnes).

• Safras & Mercado sees Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar output slipping ~3.9% to 41.8 MMT and exports down 11% (to 30 MMT), which would moderately tighten balances post‑2026 if other origins don’t fully offset.

What this means for buyers

Procurement teams should maintain flexible sourcing strategies for Sugar given the evolving market dynamics. Monitor supply-side developments, inventory trends, and demand signals from end-use sectors. Consider layered hedging against price volatility and diversify supplier exposure to manage risk.