South Africa, which accounts for 72% of global platinum production, has seen a marked improvement in electricity availability. Eskom's 120-day streak without stage 4 load-shedding is the longest since 2021, allowing mines to operate at near-full capacity. Anglo American Platinum's Mogalakwena and Amandelbult operations have both reported uninterrupted production in Q2.
The improved power situation contributed to Anglo American Platinum's 3.2% year-on-year production increase for Q2. Impala Platinum and Sibanye-Stillwater also reported stable output. Total South African PGM production is tracking at 4.2 Moz annualized, up from 4.0 Moz in 2025.
However, labor risks are building. Wage negotiations with the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) are ongoing, with demands for a 12% increase against current CPI of 4.8%. A strike would immediately remove 10-15% of global platinum supply. The previous AMCU strike in 2014 lasted five months and significantly tightened the market.
Despite improved near-term supply, the global PGMs market remains in deficit for 2026, with the WPIC projecting a 125,000 oz shortfall. Above-ground stocks are at 3.5 Moz, equivalent to approximately three months of global demand, providing a buffer against supply disruptions but insufficient for a prolonged strike.
The improved Eskom situation removes a key risk premium from platinum pricing. However, the AMCU wage negotiations are a binary event. Cover 50% of H2 requirements now at $1,780-1,800. If a strike is called, prices could spike $150-200/oz overnight.