Silver Trades at $68.94 as Fifth Consecutive Supply Deficit Tightens Physical Market

Silver is trading at $68.94/oz on COMEX, down 6.55% on the session as the metal corrects from its March recovery levels. Despite the daily decline, silver remains structurally supported by a deepening supply deficit that is now in its fifth consecutive year. The metal hit an all-time high of $121/oz in January 2026 before correcting sharply.

The Silver Institute's April 2026 report projects the global silver market deficit will widen 15% to 46.3 million ounces this year. Critically, this widening occurs even as total industrial demand is forecast to dip slightly due to global growth concerns. The paradox: supply is shrinking even faster than demand as mine output continues to lag.

Industrial applications dominate silver demand at 59% of total consumption. Solar photovoltaic manufacturing is the fastest-growing segment, on track to consume nearly 20% of global silver supply by 2030. The EU's mandate for solar integration in new buildings has driven PV cell demand into overdrive, creating a structural demand base that shows no signs of peaking.

Exchange inventories have fallen to decade lows, and physical shortages in major bullion hubs like London have pushed up lease rates significantly. The tight physical availability underpins spot prices even as paper market volatility creates daily price swings. ETF holdings remain elevated, providing additional demand support.

J.P. Morgan forecasts silver averaging $81/oz in 2026, with Goldman Sachs more bullish at $85-100/oz on green energy transition demand. The key risk: solar thrifting (using less silver per panel) could cap demand growth, and retail coin/bar demand has cooled from 2025 peaks. However, the structural deficit narrative remains intact.