The Silver Institute projects PV-driven silver demand will fall 19% in 2026 to roughly 151 Moz, as high silver prices push manufacturers to accelerate thrifting and adopt copper metallization technologies. Despite this reduction, silver remains critical for solar panel production and accounts for roughly 15-20% of total silver demand.
Overall industrial demand is forecast to decline 3% in 2026 to roughly 640 Moz, with PV the primary drag. However, growth in other sectors EVs, AI/data center infrastructure, and automotive electronics provides a partial offset. The Silver Institute projects automotive silver demand to grow at a CAGR of 3.4% through 2031.
On the supply side, global mine production is expected to remain flat in 2026 at approximately 840 Moz. Roughly 70% of silver is produced as a by-product of copper, zinc, and lead mining, making supply inelastic to silver prices. Recycling remains constrained by collection inefficiencies.
Investment demand is surging to offset industrial weakness. Coin and bar demand jumped 14% in 2025 and is forecast to rise another 18% in 2026. India led with a 33% increase in coin/bar demand. China's impending silver export controls could further tighten physical availability and create regional premium dislocations.
The PV demand decline provides near-term relief but does not eliminate the structural deficit. Treat silver as a strategic commodity: diversify suppliers considering China export control risk, invest in recycling/recovery, and use a mix of long-term contracts and spot purchases.