Silver has been the hardest hit among precious metals in the current correction. The metal that surged 147% in 2025 and hit an all-time high of $121.67/oz in January has now given back nearly half its gains. The trigger is the same macro shift affecting gold: a hawkish turn from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the unwinding of safe-haven premiums as US-Iran hostilities are set to end.
Silver dropped approximately 3% on June 18 alone after the Federal Reserve's dot plot showed growing support for rate hikes. Nine Fed officials now expect a rate hike by year-end 2026, lifting the dollar and pressuring all non-yielding assets.
Additional selling pressure came from improved shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz after the US-Iran interim peace deal came into effect. The conflict had triggered the largest oil supply disruption on record and drove a flight to precious metals. Investors are now rotating out of the safe-haven trade.
Despite the correction, silver remains 78% above its year-ago level. The LBMA analyst survey forecasts an average 2026 silver price of $79.57/oz, implying significant upside from current levels.
The silver pullback presents a buying opportunity for industrial buyers who were priced out at triple digits. The LBMA consensus of $79.57/oz for 2026 suggests current levels are below the annual average. However, the market remains volatile — the analyst range runs from $42 to $165. Buyers should layer in positions rather than going all-in at current levels. China's export controls on silver from January 2026 add a structural supply constraint not reflected in the current price.