Silver is trading in the $72-75/oz range as of late June 2026, having corrected roughly 38% from the all-time high of $121.64/oz reached on January 29, 2026. The metal surged approximately 147% in 2025 — its strongest annual performance since 1979 — before that parabolic spike gave way to a sharp correction that has now lasted five months. But the price action masks what the World Silver Survey 2026 calls a market in 'price discovery' rather than in retreat. The current $72-80 band has become the zone where physical support has re-established itself following the January sell-off.
The primary driver of silver's price floor is the structural supply deficit. The World Silver Survey 2026, published by the Silver Institute and researched by Metals Focus, projects a sixth consecutive annual deficit of 46.3 million ounces in 2026, up 15% from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Total demand of 1.07-1.09 billion ounces runs well ahead of mine supply of roughly 847 million ounces. That 220+ million ounce gap exists because approximately 70% of silver production comes as a by-product of copper, zinc, and lead mining — meaning supply cannot expand quickly regardless of silver price movements.
The secondary driver is COMEX inventory depletion. Registered COMEX inventories have fallen to approximately 315 million ounces from 531 million ounces in October 2025, a 41% decline in just nine months. The March 2026 delivery cycle absorbed approximately 46.1 million ounces of physical silver in a single month — representing 60.6% of the entire current registered stock. Analysts at Finance Magnates and Metals Focus both flag this as 'stress territory' and note that the acceleration in inventory drawdowns since late 2025 signals tightening physical availability that has historically preceded lease rate spikes and widening premiums for physical metal over paper.
On the supply side, the picture is fundamentally constrained. Global mine supply rose by 7% to approximately 1,090 million ounces in 2025, but is projected to be roughly flat in 2026. Many primary silver mines are aging, and the by-product nature of most silver production means that weak zinc and lead prices pose a downside risk to output from base-metal operations. Major new primary silver projects are not near production, with lead times from discovery to production averaging more than eight years. Recycled supply offers some buffer but is constrained by high collection costs and limited scrap availability.
Demand presents a more nuanced picture. Industrial demand remains the structural growth driver, with solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing consuming approximately 160 million ounces in 2026, albeit with active thrifting reducing silver per panel by roughly 19% year-on-year. Electric vehicle production, estimated at 17 million units in 2025 and projected to exceed 40 million by 2030, adds 20-40 million ounces of incremental annual demand through electrical contacts, battery management, and charging systems. AI data center infrastructure is an emerging demand source. Against this, jewelry consumption is down 9% and silverware demand is down 17%, as high prices cause demand destruction in price-sensitive segments.
Analyst views span an extraordinary range, reflecting the market's uncertainty. JPMorgan sees silver averaging approximately $81/oz for full-year 2026, more than double the 2025 average. Goldman Sachs projects $85-100/oz, treating silver as a core beneficiary of the green energy transition. Bank of America's base case sits at $56-65/oz but its bull case targets $135-309/oz by year-end, contingent on gold-silver ratio compression. The Reuters poll of analysts projects a 2026 average of $79.50/oz, up from $50 as recently as October 2025. The extreme spread — from $44 at the low end (UBS) to $309 in BofA's bull case — captures silver's defining characteristic: extreme volatility layered on a tight structural foundation.
Macro and policy context is broadly supportive for precious metals but carries specific risks for silver. The Fed's hawkish stance (63% September rate hike probability) is a headwind for all metals, but silver's industrial demand component provides a growth-linked floor that gold lacks. The gold-silver ratio at approximately 56:1 signals silver is modestly undervalued relative to gold by historical standards, but still well above the extreme of 105:1 seen in April 2025. A ratio below 50:1 would signal silver outperformance typically associated with industrial demand acceleration.
The forward outlook for silver is structurally bullish but extraordinarily volatile. The six-year deficit streak is unprecedented in the modern era and has consumed an estimated 762 million ounces of above-ground inventories since 2021. The price discovery phase could resolve in either direction — a break below $63 (the 200-day moving average) opens a path to $54-55 support, while a recovery above $80 tests the initial resistance. The fundamental thesis is that the structural deficit, combined with constrained mine supply and shrinking freely available inventories, will eventually force prices higher. The timing remains the open question.
Buyers of silver for industrial applications — solar manufacturers, electronics producers, automotive suppliers — face a market where the floor is well-defined but the ceiling is anyone's guess. The current $72-75/oz level sits above the JPMorgan 2026 average forecast ($81) and below Goldman's ($85-100). For procurement, this suggests that forward coverage at current levels carries more upside risk (prices rising) than downside risk (prices falling below $63 support). The recommended strategy: layer in hedges for 50-60% of 2026 H2 requirements using COMEX futures, taking advantage of the fact that silver remains below most institutional average forecasts. Maintain flexibility on the remaining exposure via options or spot purchases, monitoring the two key indicators: COMEX registered inventory (further decline signals tightening) and the gold-silver ratio (compression below 50 signals silver outperformance). Physical buyers should also monitor LBMA lease rates — the October 2025 squeeze saw rates spike sharply when unencumbered silver fell to 17% of vaulted stocks. At current inventory levels, a similar squeeze risk exists.
Silver sits in a market that is structurally tighter than at any point in the last two decades: six consecutive annual deficits, COMEX inventories drawn down 41% in nine months, and mine supply constrained by the by-product nature of 70% of global production. For industrial buyers — solar PV manufacturers, electronics fabricators, battery producers — the current $72-75/oz level offers better forward coverage value than the $80+ that most institutional forecasts project for H2 2026. The procurement strategy should be three-pronged. First, layer forward coverage for 50% of Q3-Q4 2026 requirements using COMEX futures, locking in at levels below most bank averages. Second, use call options on the remaining exposure to capture any further downside if macro headwinds push silver toward $63 support, while maintaining upside participation. Third, monitor COMEX inventory data weekly — if registered stocks continue declining from the current ~315 Moz toward the 250 Moz level, that signals a physical squeeze scenario that could trigger the rapid price spikes (6%+ single-session moves) that characterized May 2026's tariff-truce rally. The key risk to this thesis is solar thrifting: if PV manufacturers accelerate silver reduction, a 19% decline in solar demand could widen to 25-30%, removing the fastest-growing demand pillar. Corporate buyers should also assess whether substituting silver with copper or aluminum in certain applications is feasible if premiums spike again.