Rhodium recycling rates remain below 20%, severely limiting secondary supply's ability to offset primary production disruptions. Unlike palladium and platinum (25%+ recycling), rhodium recovery from spent autocatalysts is technically challenging.
The low recycling rate is a structural vulnerability. South Africa's PGM sector faces chronic issues: aging infrastructure, power constraints, labor costs, and declining ore grades. Because rhodium is a byproduct, mine closures driven by palladium economics directly reduce availability.
The combination of low recycling and concentrated primary supply creates a setup where any South African disruption could trigger an immediate and severe price spike. The 2021 rally to $29,800/oz was triggered by an Anglo Platinum furnace outage. The same vulnerabilities remain.