Rhodium, the smallest and most volatile of the major platinum group metals, is trading around $8,100/oz in early July 2026. The market is in transition after a year of strong deficits and price appreciation that saw analysts at Metals Focus forecast a 62% annual price increase for 2026 to $10,200/oz.
The physical market was in a deficit of approximately 50,000 oz in 2025, according to Phoenix Refining, driven by lower South African mine supply and sustained autocatalyst demand. However, 2026 sees the market shifting to a small surplus of roughly 15,000 oz as recycling volumes increase and automotive rhodium loading declines.
South Africa provides approximately 60% of global primary rhodium supply, with Russia contributing 10%. This concentration in two geopolitically sensitive regions is the single biggest driver of rhodium volatility. Any disruption can move prices dramatically, as seen in the 2020-2021 spike above $29,000/oz.
Autocatalyst demand remains the dominant end-use. Rhodium is essential for NOx reduction in gasoline engines. While BEVs have no catalytic converters, hybrids and ICE vehicles still require rhodium, and the slower-than-expected EV transition has supported demand. Heraeus forecasts automotive rhodium demand falling roughly 5% in 2026.
Recycling is growing. Autocatalyst recycling across all PGMs is forecast to rise 11% in 2026 to 4.4 Moz, helped by Chinese scrappage programs. Higher PGM prices have encouraged scrap autocatalyst flows in Europe and the US.
The Heraeus Precious Forecast 2026 characterizes rhodium as moving toward balance, in contrast to platinum (tight deficit) and palladium (surplus). The expected price range of $6,000-9,000/oz reflects this balanced picture, though Kitco wide trading range of $7,200-10,600 testifies to thin liquidity.
Bull case: South African power disruptions cut supply, EV transition slows further. Bear case: Accelerated EV adoption, increased recycling rates. Base case: Rhodium trades $6,000-10,000 through H2 2026, rangebound with occasional volatility spikes.
Rhodium procurement requires a specialized approach. The market is thin, opaque, and dominated by long-term supply agreements between automakers and recyclers. For buyers with regular rhodium needs, the 2026 shift toward balance suggests an opportunity to secure supply at prices well below the post-COVID peaks. The $7,000-8,000 zone offers entry points for strategic stockpiling. Avoid the spot market for large volumes; negotiate term contracts with recyclers.