Rhodium traded flat at $8,200 per troy ounce on July 23, according to TradingEconomics data. Over the past month, the metal has risen 4.46%, and it remains 31.2% higher than the same time last year. But the momentum has clearly shifted: prices plunged 10% in 10 days in early June 2026 as the market absorbed the reality of a surplus for the first time after years of deficit.
The market balance tells a dramatic story. Johnson Matthey's 2026 PGM Market Report, summarized by MiningWeekly, shows rhodium recorded a deficit of 9,000 oz in 2024, which widened to 50,000 oz in 2025. But 2026 is projected to shift into a surplus of approximately 15,000 oz. This is an extraordinarily thin surplus in a market where annual demand exceeds 1 million oz, meaning the balance is fragile and sensitive to any supply disruption.
The drivers of the surplus are paradoxical: lower mine shipments from South Africa (60% of global supply) are being more than offset by a rebound in secondary supply. Johnson Matthey reports that rhodium recoveries from automotive scrap are heading for a four-year high in 2026, driven by stronger PGM prices in 2025 that encouraged more autocatalyst scrap to return to the recycling chain. Chinese scrappage programs and government incentives for domestic refining are accelerating the flow.
South African supply remains the dominant risk factor. TradingEconomics identifies South Africa as the largest producer, accounting for about 60% of world rhodium supply, followed by Russia at about 10%. MiningWeekly notes that autocatalyst recycling was slow to recover from a downturn during 2023/24, while primary supply from South Africa and North America has been eroded by rationalization and mine closures. Johnson Matthey confirms lower mine shipments from South Africa and Russia are constraining primary PGM supply.
Demand is forecast to fall by 6% in 2026, according to Johnson Matthey, driven by anticipated lower gasoline car output and reduced rhodium consumption in autocatalysts. Extreme price volatility has historically led automakers to optimize and reduce rhodium loading in catalysts, and the 2025 rally to above $10,000/oz likely accelerated this trend. JM's broader PGM commentary notes that demand for all PGMs except iridium is expected to contract in 2026.
Phoenix Refining outlines two scenarios for the second half of 2026. The bearish view: rhodium could trade in a lower range of $6,000-9,000/oz amid weaker demand and growing recycling supply. The bullish view: the projected 15,000 oz surplus is very thin, and any disruption in South African supply could quickly push the market back into deficit and support prices above $10,000/oz. Heraeus, via Ecotrade, describes rhodium as moving toward balance and expects short-term consolidation after the sharp 2025 rally.
Metals Focus had previously highlighted that rhodium's 2025 deficit drew down above-ground stocks by 23% to 349,000 oz, the lowest in at least 40 years, equal to about four months of demand. This is the key metric for buyers: even with a small surplus, the absolute level of inventory is precariously low.
Rhodium buyers are in a rare position: the first surplus in years means pricing power has shifted. But the surplus is only 15,000 oz in a market with depleted above-ground stocks at 349,000 oz (four months of demand). For automotive procurement teams, this is the window to negotiate favorable terms. Annual contracts should be locked at or below $8,000/oz with flexibility for volume adjustments. The downside risk to $6,000 is real if recycling continues to grow and gasoline vehicle output falls. But the upside risk is equally real: South Africa, which produces 60% of global supply, is in an electricity crisis with tariffs up 60% since 2021. A single mine shutdown or load-shedding event could drain the thin surplus within weeks and send prices back above $10,000. The optimal strategy is to negotiate aggressive pricing for base volumes while maintaining the ability to add emergency volumes at a fixed premium.