Rhodium is trading at $8,100/oz as of July 3, 2026, up 4.5% on the day but well below the Q1 2026 peak above $11,500/oz. The metal has corrected from both the Q1 spike above $11,000 and a May level around $9,000/oz after a 10% plunge in ten days. The move reflects a fundamental shift in the market balance.
According to Johnson Matthey's 2026 PGM Market Report, all six PGMs were in deficit in 2025, but in 2026, rhodium is expected to move into a small surplus. Lower mine shipments will be balanced by a rebound in secondary supply, with rhodium recoveries from automotive scrap heading for a four-year high. Demand is forecast to fall by 6%, primarily from autocatalysts. Heraeus Precious Metals similarly forecasts rhodium transitioning from a small deficit to a surplus in 2026.
Phoenix Refining estimates the numbers more precisely: a deficit of ~9,000 oz in 2024, widening to ~50,000 oz in 2025, but flipping to a surplus of ~15,000 oz in 2026 as recycling rises and automotive demand weakens. Under bearish scenarios, they expect rhodium to trade in a $6,000-9,000/oz range. The key insight: the projected surplus is very thin — 15,000 oz in a market where annual demand is ~1 million oz.
South African supply concentration remains the defining structural feature. South Africa provides >80% of global primary rhodium, with the metal produced as a by-product of platinum and palladium extraction. There is no rhodium-only mining. This means primary supply cannot respond independently to price signals — it depends on PGM mining decisions. Johnson Matthey notes South African mines face deeper ore bodies, rising costs, power shortages, and aging infrastructure.
The automotive catalyst market consumes ~71-85% of global rhodium, depending on the source. Stricter emissions standards (Euro 7, China VI, US Tier 3) keep rhodium loadings relevant in three-way catalysts, particularly for NOx reduction where no cheap direct substitute exists. The Ecotrade Group notes that automotive rhodium demand is forecast to fall around 5% in 2026, reflecting the continued decline in ICE and hybrid vehicle market share, but this is gradual rather than abrupt.
Recycling is the swing factor. Higher PGM prices in 2025 encouraged more autocatalyst material to return to the recycling chain, especially in Europe and the US. Heraeus expects secondary supply to rise significantly in 2026, with rhodium prices expected to trade in a $6,000-9,000/oz range. However, the thinness of the projected surplus means any disruption to South African mining or a pickup in auto demand could quickly swing the market back into deficit.
Key price levels: support at $6,000/oz (widely cited as the lower bound of the 2026 "reset" range under surplus conditions), intermediate support at $7,000-7,500 (current zone). Resistance at $9,000-9,500 (May level), then $11,500-12,000 (Q1 2026 peak). Above $12,000, history shows demand destruction and accelerated recycling kick in.
For buyers of rhodium-containing catalysts, the current $8,000-8,500 zone offers a more balanced risk profile than the Q1 spike above $11,000. The shift to surplus is real but fragile. The recommended strategy: secure H2 2026 requirements at current levels, as any South African supply disruption could quickly erase the thin surplus. The 15,000 oz projected surplus represents less than 2% of annual demand — well within the margin of error for mine disruption. For auto sector buyers: the 6% demand decline forecast by JM is manageable, but keep an eye on scrappage rates. Higher PGM prices in 2025-26 are accelerating recycling, which is the main source of surplus. If scrap flows slow, the surplus disappears. Build a hedging ladder between $7,000-9,000.