Platinum supply dynamics are shifting toward a more comfortable balance in 2026. Mine production is expected to grow 2% year-on-year, driven primarily by stabilization in South Africa, which accounts for approximately 70% of global platinum mine supply. Eskom’s improved power availability has reduced load-shedding disruptions at South African PGM operations, while higher PGM prices have incentivized the release of work-in-progress inventory.
Zimbabwean production is also rising, with the Zimplats and Mimosa operations benefiting from increased milling capacity. Amplats and Sibanye-Stillwater have guided for modest production increases, while Russian production is expected to remain flat as Nornickel focuses on nickel and palladium output.
The recycling supply surge is the more significant swing factor. Autocatalyst recycling volumes are projected to rise 10% in 2026 as the higher platinum prices of 2024–2025 encourage recovery rates and reduce inventories at recyclers. This marks a reversal from 2024–2025 when recycling declined as scrap flow slowed despite high prices.
The combined effect of stable mine output and rising recycling is a total platinum supply of approximately 7.4 million ounces in 2026, broadly matching the WPIC’s demand forecast of 7.385 Moz. The market is thus in a near-perfect balance, a sharp contrast to the 500–1,000 koz deficits of the prior years.
The return to supply-demand balance removes the urgency that characterized platinum procurement in 2024–2025. Buyers can negotiate from a position of strength, particularly for H2 2026 deliveries. However, the recycling supply recovery is price-dependent—if prices fall below $1,500/oz, recycling flows may slow, reintroducing tightness.