Platinum futures fell below $1,770/oz intraweek, moving toward six-month lows, before settling at $1,698/oz. The selloff mirrors the broader precious metals complex but was more severe than gold or silver on a percentage basis. The primary driver was the US dollar strengthening after the Fed's June 18 meeting signaled a hawkish turn.
Nine Fed officials now expect a rate hike by the end of 2026, according to the latest dot plot. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for non-US buyers, reducing demand. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that inflation has remained above the central bank's 2% target for several years.
Losses were capped by structural market tightness. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) projects a 2026 deficit of approximately 297,000 ounces — the fourth consecutive annual shortfall. Output from major producers South Africa and Russia remains constrained by aging mines, high costs, power shortages, and sanctions-related disruptions.
Above-ground platinum stocks have fallen approximately 42% since 2023, with current inventory coverage at roughly 3-4 months of demand — the lowest since 2014. WPIC data confirmed that both Norilsk Nickel and Zimplats recorded double-digit year-on-year output declines in Q1 2026.
The platinum pullback is happening against a backdrop of the tightest supply fundamentals in over a decade. Above-ground stocks at just 3-4 months of demand mean any supply disruption — a South African power crisis, Russian sanctions escalation — would have an outsized price impact. For buyers, current levels near $1,700 offer a better entry than the $2,900 highs of January. Consider hedge positions given the asymmetric upside risk from supply concentration.