The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a 240 koz deficit for 2026, following a deep 1,082 koz deficit in 2025. Q1 2026 recorded a temporary 268 koz surplus driven by ETF outflows, but the full-year balance remains in deficit. Above-ground stocks are projected at just over four months of global demand.
South African primary output has declined from 5.3 Moz in 2006 to 3.9 Moz in 2025, a 26% contraction that persisted through multiple price cycles above $2,000/oz. Eskom's electricity tariffs for mining operations rose approximately 60% between 2021 and 2026. South Africa, Russia, and Zimbabwe account for 80-90% of global PGM output.
Automotive demand — the largest segment — is expected to fall 3% in 2026 but remains historically strong at over 3 Moz. Platinum substitution for palladium in gasoline catalysts continues to support loadings. Industrial demand is forecast to rebound 11% to 2,124 koz as glass capacity expansion resumes.
Investment demand is the swing factor. ETF and exchange stock outflows of 150 koz are expected in 2026 after large inflows in 2025, pulling headline demand down 8%. But bar and coin investment is forecast to jump 35% to 725 koz, with India emerging as a new growth market.
Bank of America raised its 2026 platinum forecast to $2,450/oz, citing persistent deficits. The correction from January's $2,878 high to current $1,814 reflects ETF profit-taking, not a change in fundamentals. A balanced market in 2026 would still not rebuild above-ground stocks, keeping the structural tightness intact.
Platinum's 35% correction from January highs is mostly ETF-driven, not a fundamental breakdown. Four months of stock coverage is critically low by historical standards. Buyers should note that any stabilization in ETF outflows or a supply disruption in South Africa would tighten the market rapidly. Current levels offer a better entry than January's spike, but monitor weekly WPIC data for changes in ETF holdings.