The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) released its quarterly update projecting a 128 Koz global deficit for 2026, narrowing from 245 Koz in 2025. The shift from deficit to near-balance is driven by slower autocatalyst substitution gains and steady mine supply.
PGM substitution in autocatalysts is expected to contribute 180 Koz of incremental platinum demand in 2026, down from 230 Koz in 2025. The North American and European conversion cycle is 80% complete. Remaining substitution will come from Chinese gasoline vehicle platforms at a slower rate.
Mine supply is projected at 6,400 Koz, flat year-on-year. South African output is constrained by power and cost pressures, but this is offset by modest growth from Zimbabwe and a recovery in Russian by-product production. Recycling supply is expected to remain stable at 1,650 Koz.
Jewelry demand declined 2% year-on-year to 210 Koz, largely due to weakness in the Chinese luxury market. Industrial demand outside autocatalysts grew 4%, driven by glass manufacturing and medical equipment applications.
The narrowing deficit means the supply-demand balance is less supportive than 2025. But a deficit is still a deficit. Buyers should not assume downside relief. The $1,600-1,700 range remains a fair entry zone for H2, with the deficit providing a soft price floor.