LME nickel has established a clear $17,000-20,000 trading range since recovering from the 2025 lows near $13,865/t. The lower boundary at $17,000 corresponds to the level where Fastmarkets and Wood Mackenzie see fundamental support, while $20,000 represents the level needed to incentivize Western sulphide restarts.
The 14-day RSI at 52 reflects the absence of directional conviction. Open interest has been stable, suggesting neither aggressive accumulation nor distribution. The futures curve is in contango, reflecting the expected surplus, though near-term tightness from Indonesian ore constraints supports the spot.
The World Bank's 2026 nickel price outlook of ~$15,500/t and ING's $15,250/t forecast illustrate the gap between institutional averages and current spot. If the Indonesian ore quota policy holds and stainless demand recovers, nickel could sustain levels above institutional forecasts. If ore quotas ease or LFP substitution accelerates, prices could drift toward $15,000.
The $20,000 resistance level is significant not just technically but operationally. Several Western sulphide projects have restarts contingent on sustained prices above $20,000 for extended periods. A break above $20,000 would signal a structural shift in market balance.
Key levels to watch: $17,000 (major support), $18,500 (current), $19,200 (recent high), $20,000 (major resistance). A close above $19,200 with volume would target $20,000. A break below $17,000 would target $15,500.
The $17,000-20,000 range provides a clear framework for hedging. Buy dips toward $17,000-17,500 with layered hedges for H2 2026 requirements. If prices approach $20,000, reduce spot exposure and rely on contracted supply. The Indonesian ore policy is the primary catalyst to watch — any relaxation would be bearish, further tightening would be bullish.