Nickel's technical ceiling remains near $18,000/mt. The metal hit a 19-month high of about $18,700/t in January before consolidating. Rzzro's current LME read is $17,380/mt.
The bullish driver is Indonesian ore supply. A 34% quota reduction versus 2025 creates a large feedstock gap and keeps the market sensitive to policy headlines. The bearish driver is inventory. LME registered and off-warrant stocks rose 57.6% last year, capping upside.
The market is therefore range-bound until one side wins. A break above $18,000/mt would need fresh quota cuts or a sharp inventory draw. A break below $16,500/mt would signal that surplus expectations are dominating procurement behavior.
Use $18,000/mt as the level to avoid chasing unless Indonesian policy tightens further. Add coverage below $16,500/mt for stainless and battery-linked exposure.