The nickel price outlook for the remainder of 2026 centers on a $16,500 to $19,000 per tonne trading range, supported by Indonesia's ore supply discipline on the downside and constrained by the large inventory overhang on the upside. This range is consistent with analyst consensus and represents the most defensible price expectation for procurement planning. The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) projects the global nickel market will shift from surplus to a modest deficit in 2026, driven by ore supply constraints and steady demand growth from the stainless steel and EV battery sectors.
New HPAL projects reaching commissioning could add up to 600,000 tonnes of refined nickel equivalent to global supply by late 2026, which would pressure prices toward the lower end of the range. However, technical challenges and the sulfur shortage create significant execution risk for these projects. Combined with a technology-driven reduction in nickel intensity per EV unit driven by LFP battery adoption, this scenario could push nickel back toward $14,000 to $15,500 per tonne. Conversely, if HPAL ramp-ups face delays and EV demand accelerates, the deficit could widen significantly.
The critical insight for procurement teams is that the reported surplus narrative often fails to distinguish between Class 1 nickel (LME-deliverable) and Class 2 nickel (NPI). While there is an abundance of NPI, the market for battery-grade MHP and high-purity nickel sulfates remains tight. Indonesia's supply discipline — targeting flat-to-down ore production — is finally beginning to bite, and this structural shift will likely sustain nickel prices above pre-2025 levels for the foreseeable future.
Price nickel at the upper end of the range for budget planning. The ore supply constraint is structural, not cyclical. For stainless steel buyers, NPI-linked pricing may offer discounts to LME. For battery supply chains, secure 12+ month contracts for Class 1 material with Indonesia-free premiums.