Henry Hub natural gas is testing support at $3.20/MMBtu, with the 50-day moving average at $3.15 providing the next technical floor. The April-June correction from the $3.80 high has been orderly, with declining volume suggesting selling exhaustion rather than panic liquidation.
The EIA expects Q2-Q3 2026 prices to be 'closely aligned' with year-ago levels, implying a summer trading range of approximately $3.00-3.80/MMBtu. The $3.00 level represents both psychological support and the Q3 2025 consolidation zone. A close below $3.00 would break the support structure and open a move to the $2.80 area.
On the upside, resistance is clustered at $3.50 (prior resistance) and $3.80 (the June contract high). A sustained move above $3.50 would signal that the injection season is tightening the market faster than expected, potentially triggering short covering. The $4.00 strike is the next major call option open interest concentration.
The summer injection season will determine the next directional move. Storage builds that track or exceed the five-year average will reinforce the $3.00-3.80 range. Storage builds that fall short of expectations — due to higher LNG feedgas demand or hotter summer weather for power burn — would provide the catalyst for a breakout above $3.80.
The $3.00-3.80 range provides clear boundaries for procurement strategy. Buy near $3.00 for winter hedge positions and scale back near $3.80. Use the summer injection season reports as leading indicators — weak injections signal tightening and provide buying urgency. Avoid fixing all volumes, as the $3.00 floor is well-supplied by associated gas production.