Henry Hub natural gas has established a firm support base around $3.00/mmBtu, with the 200-day moving average at $2.95 providing a technical floor that has held through five tests since March 2026. The 14-day RSI of 55 indicates neutral conditions, neither overbought nor oversold, and room to move in either direction.
The winter 2026-2027 futures strip — covering November 2026 through March 2027 — is pricing at $3.80/mmBtu, representing a substantial $0.65 winter premium over the prompt month. This is the widest winter premium since 2022 and reflects the market's anticipation of tighter supply-demand balances driven by LNG structural export growth.
Key resistance levels are stacked at $3.50 (the October 2025 high), $3.80 (the winter strip price), and $4.00 (psychological resistance). A break above $3.50 would confirm a shift from the $3.00-3.50 range that has held since February. The catalyst would likely be an extended heatwave driving sustained power burn above 45 Bcf/d.
On the downside, $3.00 is the critical floor. A breach below $3.00 would test the 200-day MA at $2.95 and then $2.75 (the 2025 summer average). However, the fundamental backdrop — LNG demand growth, flat production, and increasing power sector demand — argues against sustained breaks below $3.00.
The natural gas market has entered a new structural regime. The days of sub-$2.50 HH prices are likely behind us. The combination of LNG structural demand, capital discipline from producers, and growing power sector consumption has reset the effective floor from $2.00 to $3.00.
The $3.00 floor is real and structural. Buyers needing winter gas should not wait for a pullback to sub-$3.00 — the winter strip at $3.80 already reflects the structural tightening. Lock in 50% of winter requirements at $3.15-3.25 for summer months, and 75% of winter requirements at $3.60-3.80 for Nov-Mar coverage.