Natural gas power burn averaged 46.8 Bcf/d in the first three weeks of June, the highest seasonal level since 2024 and 3.2 Bcf/d above the five-year average, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. The elevated demand reflects above-normal temperatures across major power markets.
ERCOT (Texas) set a new June peak demand record of 78.5 GW on June 17, driven by a heat dome that pushed temperatures above 105°F in Dallas and Houston. Natural gas-fired generation accounted for 46% of the ERCOT fuel mix during the heat event, with renewables contributing 28% and coal 19%.
California ISO (CAISO) reported peak demand of 44.2 GW on June 18, near the seasonal record. Natural gas provided 32% of CAISO generation during the peak, as hydro output remained below average following a drier-than-normal spring snowmelt. Solar generation met 28% of the peak demand.
Coal-to-gas switching economics remain favorable for gas-fired dispatch. The delivered cost advantage of natural gas over coal at the margin is approximately $1.80/MMBtu at current Henry Hub prices, meaning gas-fired plants are dispatched ahead of coal in most regions.
Cooling degree days (CDDs) for the week ending June 20 totaled 68 nationally, 12% above the 10-year normal for the period. NOAA's 8-14 day outlook calls for above-normal temperatures across the South and Midwest, suggesting power burn will remain elevated through at least the first week of July.
Elevated summer power burn supports near-term Henry Hub prices. Natural gas buyers should watch for demand pullback in early September as shoulder season approaches. For Q4 2026 contracts, $3.50-4.00/mmBtu is a reasonable hedging range given LNG demand outlook.