Henry Hub natural gas is trading at $3.29/MMBtu as of June 26, up about 6% over the past month but roughly 12% below year-ago levels. The NYMEX July 2026 prompt-month futures contract settled at $3.22/MMBtu on June 24, easing from a four-month high reached earlier in June.
The dominant factor is storage. EIA data for the week ending June 19 shows working gas in storage at 2,835 Bcf, a net injection of 76 Bcf from the prior week. Stocks are 49 Bcf below last year's level but 152 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,683 Bcf. This 5.7% surplus provides a significant price cap even as summer cooling demand ramps up.
Demand is expected to be robust. The EIA's June Short-Term Energy Outlook projects total US natural gas demand (including exports) at an average of 76.7 Bcf/d for June-August, about 2.3% higher than summer 2025. The primary drivers are power-sector cooling load and record LNG exports. Electric-power gas consumption is projected at about 43.7 Bcf/d for summer 2026.
LNG exports are a structural demand driver. The EIA reports US LNG export capacity grew about 0.9 Bcf/d in April 2026, with Corpus Christi Stage 3 expected to add another 0.2 Bcf/d during the summer. Feedgas flows are running around 19 Bcf/d, and EIA forecasts average LNG exports of 17.0 Bcf/d for calendar 2026, rising to 18.2 Bcf/d in 2027.
Production remains at elevated levels at approximately 109.7 Bcf/d in June. The EIA expects warmer-than-normal summer temperatures to drive a 3% increase in power-sector generation versus last summer, which supports gas demand, but the combination of high production and storage surplus means any sustained rally above $3.50/MMBtu would require either a production outage or a heatwave that exceeds current forecasts.
The storage surplus gives buyers negotiating leverage through summer. Fixed-price contracts should be indexed to the EIA storage report week-over-week rather than spot Henry Hub. If you have winter 2026-27 requirements, current pricing in the low $3s offers reasonable protection against seasonal winter premium. The risk is a hot August that draws storage down faster than expected — watch the EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the first below-5yr-average print.